In 2010, the Packers got hot late and won it all; 2011 ended with playoff disappointment. (Getty Images)
A talk-radio host the other day asked me if there were any conclusions to be drawn from the first two weeks of play. As a matter of fact, I told him I could think of one: Don't run with what you've seen.
Meaning? Meaning the San Francisco 49ers aren't necessarily going to the Super Bowl, and the New Orleans Saints aren't dead meat.
Not yet anyway.
I know Las Vegas just made the 49ers the favorite to win their sixth Super Bowl while diminishing the chances of the winless Saints. But get real, people: If there's a lesson we should have learned the past two seasons, it's to not overreact to much of anything two, three or even eight weeks into the season.
It's not how you start the year that matters; it's how you finish it. I know what you're thinking: Well, duh. So then why do we persist in crowning Super Bowl winners months before the championship game is played? It makes no sense, and let me offer two reasons why: The past two Super Bowl champions.
The 2011 New York Giants and 2010 Green Bay Packers have something in common besides a Lombardi Trophy. Both qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the season, then ran the table. The Packers were supposed to be DOA in mid-December. So were the Giants. But each won its final two regular-season games before circling the bases in the playoffs.
Now look at the 2011 Packers. They won 15 of 16 games and were the best team in football from the beginning of the regular season to its end. So, two weeks into play, they became the overwhelming favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions, even though only one team (the 2003-04 Patriots) had done it the previous 12 years.
Nevertheless, the Packers lived up to expectations until something strange, something unexpected, something totally unpredictable happened in the playoffs: They lost. Yep, they suffered the same fate as the unbeaten New England Patriots of 2007, worn down and worn out by something ... and I'll call it fatigue.
Mental, physical, take your pick. All I know is that the team we saw in January wasn't the club we watched from September to December, and where's the surprise? It's virtually impossible in the NFL to maintain a superior level of play for five months.
I mentioned the 2007 Patriots, and I offer them as a textbook example. They regularly blew down opponents the first half of the season, then faltered down the stretch -- nearly losing to Philadelphia, Baltimore and the New York Giants. Then, in the conference championship game, they struggled to overcome a San Diego team that played without LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates and with quarterback Philip Rivers operating on one leg.
Two weeks later, they were beaten by the Giants.
That doesn't mean the 49ers are doomed. It just means that what you see now may not be what you get in January. When I visited the 49ers in the summer of 2011, I remember one member of the club telling me that, more than anything, players needed "a signature victory" to convince them that they could play with the big boys.
Then they went to Philadelphia that September and found it.
When I stopped by Santa Clara a year later I checked in with some of the same people from the previous summer, and all agreed the Philadelphia game changed the outlook of the club -- so much, in fact, that one guy said the 49ers now might need "a signature loss" to maintain their balance.
I knew what he was talking about then, and I know what he's talking about now.
The NFL this week reminded us that 75.7 percent of teams that start 3-0 make the playoffs, and that's great. But it also reminded us that since the current system was adopted in 1990, 22 clubs that lost their first two starts made it to the postseason. OK, so that number isn't all that significant. But this is: Four of those teams reached the Super Bowl, and three of them won it.
Moreover, since realignment in 2002, 70 of the 120 clubs that qualified for the playoffs -- or 58.3 percent -- started the year 1-1 or 0-2, including eight last year. One of them, the Giants, wound up winning Super Bowl XLVI.
Bottom line: There's hope, New Orleans. Aesop knew what he was talking about when he wrote The Tortoise and the Hare. What he didn't know was that its lessons would apply to today's NFL.
If they get the running attack the rest of the way that they got against the Titans, they just might go 16-0. 
They started slow against Miami, but it got cranked up in the second quarter. That defense was impressive.
The new-look offense is going to be a handful for a lot of defenses. Matt Ryan looks so much more comfortable. 
Winning on the road at Green Bay is really impressive. Alex Smith shut some mouths -- including mine.
Joe Flacco and that up-tempo offense impressed against the Bengals. Can they keep it up?
One thing that stood out about the Cowboys in beating the Giants: They are faster on both sides of the ball.
If they don't tighten up the back end of their defense, even Aaron Rodgers might not be able to bail them out.
Mike Vick sure didn't look like Mike Vick against the Browns. What happened to that offense?
Peyton Manning is the same Peyton Manning. This is a good team. Now comes a tough test: at Atlanta. 
Jay Cutler looked like a new man after a slow start. You think he loves have Brandon Marshall around? 
That was a tough way to open the season in Denver, and they did some good things. They do need to get James Harrison back. 
They have major issues on defense that could put even more pressure on Drew Brees to do even more. They have pass-rush issues.
They need to tighten up the back end of that defense or even their vaunted pass rush won't save them.
They took a beating in the second half against the Ravens. But the schedule is soft for the next month.
They better do some improving this week, because they have a tough road trip to San Francisco. It wasn't pretty against the Rams.
They didn't do a lot on offense, but they have to be excited about their defensive front. There are some talented young players there.
Were they just playing coy in the preseason? They looked like a different team. It's obvious they need to unchain Mark Sanchez.
It's Kevin Kolb time with John Skelton hurt. If he plays like he did on the game-winning drive against Seattle, the Cardinals could compete in the division.
Lost in all the RG3 hype from beating the Saints is how well the defense played. That front seven is nasty. 
The defense, which was horrible last year, looked much better. They played well up front, but now face a tough test at the Giants.
So much for all that talk about how they were ready to take a big step forward. That was a disaster against the Jets.
Russell Wilson made it interesting in the end, but they have to do more on offense if they are to compete with the 49ers. Chalk it up to a first start.
Al Davis would have hated seeing his Raiders play slow, which they did against the Chargers. They might want to work on that backup long snapper. 
I know they had some key guys out on defense, but that was horrible against the Falcons. They need to tighten things up.
Opening against a team like New England is tough for a young team. Jake Locker's status with a shoulder injury has to be monitored. 
They hardly looked like the same offense against Tampa Bay. Is this a regressing team, or was that just an aberration?
Adrian Peterson has made an amazing recovery from knee surgery. But the key is how well Christian Ponder develops, and he showed well in the first game.
The best thing to come out of their loss to the Vikings was how well Blaine Gabbert played. He looked like a different guy.
That was a tough way to lose a road opener against a supposed good team. But that also shows they will compete better than many expected.
The secondary was a big problem against the Bears, which will put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck to keep up.
Opening on the road against a good Texans team is tough to do. But I think we'll see a lot of games like that this season.
You are not going to win many games when your quarterback has a passer rating of 5.1. It's going to be a long year, Cleveland.