2012 NFL season over/under win totals released: AFC analysis

Posted: 12:43 AM ET May 24, 2012

By Will Brinson | Senior NFL Blogger

Who wins more games this year: New Bronco Peyton or new hairstyle Brady? (Getty Images)
It's only May, but we have our hands on some "legal" -- in Vegas anyway -- over and unders for NFL win totals in 2012. NFL win totals are some of the most fascinating sports bets to watch because, unlike in baseball, one or two little things can drastically shift the course of an entire season.

These are also a good indication of what the usually-pretty-smart guys in Vegas foresee for the upcoming NFL season, with the added bonus of playing to the public to a degree.

Cantor Gaming released these odds (they're available for betting in seven different sportsbooks) and we got them via Covers.com. For novice gambling fans, the (-XXX) indicates the juice on certain bets. For instance, if an over is "-120," you would need to bet $120 in order to win $100. If a bet is +105, $100 would win you $105.

First up, let's break down the AFC over-unders, separated by division and in order of expected wins. Leave your favorite pick and in the comments.

New England Patriots, 12 Wins
Over (-120) / Under (-110): The over is the clear-cut favorite over the under (-110) but not by as much as I'd have thought. That's because betting on more than 12 wins in May is bananas, even if Tom Brady's extended, Wes Welker signed his franchise tender and the Pats drafted for defense. While the Patriots have only failed to win the division twice in the past 10 years, they've also "only" gone over 12 wins four times in that span. 12 games is a LOT in the NFL, regardless of who you are. Verdict: UNDER

New York Jets, 8.5 Wins
Over (-115) / Under (-115): I have a hard time believing in the Jets, and actually think they might be the third-best team in their division. Of course, they acquired Tim Tebow in the offseason and he turned the would-be worst Broncos into a division winner last year. I look at their schedule and nine wins just seems like a very optimistic projection, so I'd be staring down the under here. Verdict: UNDER

Miami Dolphins, 7.5 Wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): Am I taking crazy pills? Why are the Dolphins supposed to win more games than the Bills? It took a miracle for the Dolphins to get back to 6-10 last season and they've got a new coaching staff, a new defensive scheme and tons of questions at quarterback. The early schedule is pretty favorable so maybe I'm wrong about the Fins, but if they aren't .500 or better (3-3) at the bye, it's hard to imagine them not rolling out Ryan Tannehill to get some early action. That could result in a tough stretch run. Verdict: UNDER

Buffalo Bills, 7 Wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): Love the Bills over, but the early action is apparently on the under. That's not terribly surprising given that the public probably tends to go against a team like the Bills. But they won six games last year and if Ryan Fitzpatrick can bounce back this is a dangerous team. Plus, a five-game stretch of at IND, vs JAX, vs STL, vs SEA, at MIA looks like a winning streak to me. Verdict: OVER

Pittsburgh Steelers, 10 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): The Steelers are almost always a double-digit type of team on here, and 10's kind of low, but it might have something to do with the change from Bruce Arians to Todd Haley. (Also, -125 isn't exactly a "great" price or anything.) The Steelers have won more than 10 games five times in the last decade, won 10 games exactly once and won less four times. Looking at their schedule and considering their improved offensive line, I see them right at 10. It wouldn't be my top choice though. Verdict: OVER

Baltimore Ravens, 10 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-125): It would be interesting to find out how much Terrell Suggs' injury moved this line. Perhaps not much -- the Steelers and Ravens are usually pretty close when it comes to predicted wins. The Ravens won the division last year, though, so they've got a tougher schedule. And the Ray Rice situation should be resolved, but if I'm gambling on a team to overcome the changes/problems they're dealing with, I'll take Pittsburgh. Verdict: UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals, 7.5 wins
Over (-130) / Under (Even): As you can see, Vegas expects the Bengals to come back to Earth a little bit this year, but not too much. I can see the logic, too. They exceeded expectations and even though they slam-dunked their draft, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green ain't sneaking up on anyone next year. This total is interesting too, because if the Bengals can upset the Ravens in Week 1 (totally possible) they've got another cake early season schedule. 5-2 at the bye should be the worst-case scenario. And yet, three wins after the bye isn't a lock by any stretch. Don't love this one, but we'll go with it anyway. Verdict: OVER

Cleveland Browns, 5.5 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130): I'm already hated by Browns fans anyway, so might as well go ahead and point out this Vegas expects Cleveland to be the third-worst team in the NFL this year. And that might be generous. If the Browns can't beat the Bengals or Bills, 0-6 is a likely start. Unless Brandon Weeden is the second coming of Kurt Warner (age jokes!), I don't see more than four wins on their schedule right now. Verdict: UNDER

Houston Texans, 10 wins
Over (-140) / Under (+110): The Texans are laughably favored to win this division, and with good reason: the rest of the division is pretty bad. And it doesn't hurt for them to match up against the Colts twice in the final three weeks of the season either. It's tough to lock a team into double-digit wins in May, but if you look at their schedule, assume they can repeat their success on defense from last year and don't assume for any major injuries or decline in the rushing attack and this is a pretty good bet for an early pick. Verdict: OVER

Tennessee Titans, 7 wins
Over (-130) / Under (Even): Of course, the Texans could be in trouble if the Titans can build on last year's nine-win season. That could certainly happen but it definitely depends on how well Chris Johnson can bounce back. There's some concern with the secondary now that Cortland Finnegan's gone and there's plenty of concern about the pass rush. Someone has to win games in this division. I'm not convinced it's Tennessee. Verdict: UNDER

Indianapolis Colts, 5.5 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-135): With Andrew Luck now the face of Indy, the logical assumption is that the Colts will stink this year. And they probably will, especially considering they didn't bother to address their defense in the draft. But this offense is going to be more potent than people think, and, after the draft, I tend to believe they could end up like the 2011 Panthers and surprise some people with more wins than expected. Verdict: OVER

Jacksonville Jaguars, 5.5 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): Ladies and gentlemen, the worst team in the NFL! In May. According to Vegas. The Jaguars went out and upgraded their offense this offseason by providing weapons for Blaine Gabbert. But they could surprise the most if they can maximize Chad Henne's potential. (Yes, that sentence just happened.) If the quarterback situation is better than everyone expects, the Jags could surprise a little. But if it were better, they wouldn't be scrambling to improve it. Verdict: UNDER

Denver Broncos, 9.5 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): Perhaps the most interesting over/under of any team in the NFL, the Broncos are getting much more attention this offseason than last. It's easy to assume that new quarterback Peyton Manning will automatically get this team 10 wins; that's about what he was good for with the Colts. Cantor Sportsbook director Mike Colbert told Covers.com he doesn't think the Broncos will win nine games. Will Manning be healthy? Will his weapons be ready? Can the defense hold up? If all those answers are "yes," the over is a nice bet. Verdict: OVER

San Diego Chargers, 9 wins
Over (-130) / Under (Even): Quite clearly, the Chargers over is a popular one. And it should be -- they're due to bounce back some and their schedule is that of a team that definitely didn't win its division in 2011. Their ability to turn Melvin Ingram into an impact player on defense and keep the turnover on the offensive line and at wide receiver will determine if they can get back to their division-winning ways though. Verdict: OVER

Kansas City Chiefs, 8 wins
Over (-120) / Under (-110): Another AFC West bounceback team, the Chiefs should definitely improve on their showing last season (say what you want about 7-9, but they were -126 in point differential, second worst in the NFL). That's mainly because, I hope/guess/think/assume that Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry won't all suffer season-ending injuries right away. But I'm not sure they'll win more than Vegas predicts. Verdict: PUSH

Oakland Raiders, 7 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): The Raiders are certainly acting like they'll compete for the division again this year, and they can, I suppose, if Carson Palmer performs like he's worth two early draft picks. His receivers should take a step forward, but there's a lot of defensive losses (Stanford Routt, Chris Johnson, John Henderson, Kamerion Wimbley) and I'm not sure they made up for it. They're wisely gutting the roster of bad contracts and looking to build the right way, but that doesn't help their win total this season. Verdict: UNDER

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, subscribe to our RSS Feed and subscribe to our Pick-6 Podcast and NFL newsletter. You can follow Will Brinson on Twitter here: @willbrinson.

Tags: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, Carson Palmer, Chad Henne, Chris Johnson, Cortland Finnegan, Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles, John Henderson, Kamerion Wimbley, Melvin Ingram, Peyton Manning, Ray Rice, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stanford Routt, Terrell Suggs, Tim Tebow, Tom Brady, Tony Moeaki, Wes Welker, AFC All-Stars, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, NFL

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2012 NFL season over/under win totals released: NFC analysis

Posted: 11:34 AM ET May 24, 2012

By Will Brinson | Senior NFL Blogger

Eli's got the trophy, but will Vick win more games in 2012? (Getty Images)
The plan was originally to break down all the 2012 NFL over/under win totals together. But when I wrote the AFC breakdown earlier, it got a little long. So I'm splitting it up and now covering the NFC side of things.

Cantor Gaming released these odds (they're available for betting in seven different sportsbooks) and we got them via Covers.com. For novice gambling fans, the (-XXX) indicates the juice on certain bets. For instance, if an over is "-120," you would need to bet $120 in order to win $100. If a bet is +105, $100 would win you $105.

To the NFC totals. Leave whatever you think is the most ridiculous line in the comments.

Philadelphia Eagles, 10 wins
Over (-135) / Under (+105): So does Vegas love Philly or what? This is the second-highest win total for an NFC team, and you're heavily penalized for betting on the over, in terms of juice. Of course, if you believe that Michael Vick will be healthy for 16 games, you probably don't care, since the Eagles are a pretty good bet to hit double-digit wins. They shouldn't start like last season and their schedule appears very friendly. If Michael Vick can stay healthy. Verdict: UNDER

New York Giants, 9.5 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): And here's the rub with the Eagles as well. Whatever happens in the two games between the defending-champion Giants and defending-offseason-champion Eagles will probably determine the outcome of these two totals. I wrote about it last week, but I still believe the Giants are the better team and no I don't care that they only won one more game than Philly last year. (My friend Clark Judge heartily disagrees.) I'm sticking by my guns. Verdict: OVER

Dallas Cowboys, 8.5 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): The NFC East is a big, hot mess up top, and that shouldn't be surprising. Philly almost backdoored the playoffs last year and Dallas should've been locked before coughing up their spot to the Giants. But this year's Cowboys wouldn't have coughed up those late games: they have Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne in the secondary and that drastically changes things. This looks like a nine-win and potential division winner to me. Verdict: OVER

Washington Redskins, 6.5 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130): And then there was the wild card. I think that Robert Griffin III fits perfectly with what Mike Shanahan wants to do. I'm scared by them nearly starting 5-0 last year with Rex Grossman (and some John Beck) under center. But I look at their schedule down the stretch and after the bye they have seven games. Five are against NFC East teams and one is against the Ravens. They'll only be favored -- I think -- at Cleveland. All their easy games save the Vikings are on the road. They'll move forward but not enough. Verdict: UNDER

Green Bay Packers, 12 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): Along with the Pats, Green Bay's the only team with a total higher than 10. This shouldn't be shocking given that a) they won 15 games in 2011, and b) they went all defense in the draft. 12 games is tough, though, you guys. Cantor Sportsbook director said of the overs for the Pats and Pack: "We'll be happy to take those bets." I wouldn't make one myself, but looking at the Pack's schedule, I certainly wouldn't take the under either (13 seems right). Verdict: OVER

Detroit Lions, 9.5 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): There's been plenty of drama surrounding Jim Schwartz's troops this offseason, and there's reason to wonder if they're not a little out of control. But there's also reason to believe this team could get back to the playoffs again, especially if the Lions have a semblance of a running game. It was definitely smart to steal Riley Reiff for protection purposes, but that secondary is really scary, especially in a division with Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers. Downside is eight wins and missing in the playoffs in a very crowded NFC Wild-Card race. Verdict: UNDER

Chicago Bears, 8.5 wins
Over (-135) / Under (+105): The dumbest move for the Bears this offseason? Not beefing up their offensive line. But the smartest move? Getting a competent backup quarterback in Jason Campbell. This team was headed to 10 or 11 wins before Cutler's injury last season. The defense will/could/should regress some and is older, but the offense should be much, much better with the addition of Brandon Marshall, the growth of their linemen and the departure of Mike Martz. I love betting against the Bears Verdict: OVER

Minnesota Vikings, 6 wins
Over (Even) / Under (-130): So the Vikings won three games last year and there's almost a 100-percent chance that Adrian Peterson won't be 100-percent healthy when the season begins and they're gonna win six games this year in one of the toughest divisions in football? *books one-way flight to Las Vegas* They do have a really, really easy schedule, but that's what happens when you're a two-win team. Verdict: UNDER

New Orleans Saints, 10 wins
Over (-125) / Under (-105): Easily the most controversial line of the year. Colbert says Cantor "mathematically ... [has] the Saints at just under 10" wins on the year and "would be willing to make a gigantic bet they don't win 12." I concur. Only one of their away games (at Atlanta) is in a dome this year and last year it took Drew Brees shattering offensive records to win 13 games. They've suffered some losses, they're switching schemes on defense and they've dealt with just a tiny bit of turmoil this offseason. Verdict: UNDER

Atlanta Falcons, 9 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): Are the Falcons the most bland team in the NFL in the public's eye? It feels like they might be. Which is why people will be surprised with this year's offense when it goes away from Michael Turner and to the vertical pass. It's a potential re-breakout for Matt Ryan and a big year for Julio Jones under Dirk Koetter. They're schedule isn't easy, but I think it's favorable. Verdict: OVER

Carolina Panthers, 7.5 wins
Over (-115) / Under (-115): Logic says that a Panthers team with a rookie quarterback and a horrible defense that won six games last year should automatically improve. I dig that logic, but Cam Newton and the Panthers have a tough schedule in 2012. They travel to Philly, KC, San Diego and Chicago and play Denver and Dallas at home. But Luke Kuechly and healthy bodies on the defensive line should equate to an improved defense. The offense should be just as dangerous in Year 2 as well. It's a squeaker, but I've got them at eight wins. Verdict: OVER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): When I start thinking about the additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Eric Wright, Mark Barron, Doug Martin, well, I start doing the Monty Burns thing with my fingers. Then I remember that if Aqib Talib is suspended/in jail the Buccaneers secondary is going to be strrrrrruggl-ing. And when I start thinking about Gerald McCoy getting healthy and Josh Freeman returning to form, I think the rushing defense and passing attack could significantly improve. But when I run through the schedule, I come up with five wins. What? Someone has to lose them. Verdict: UNDER

San Francisco 49ers, 10 wins
Over (+105) / Under (-135): If you took the Niners over last year, you're playing with house money. And considering you get positive juice for taking the over on a team that's returning its entire defense, added weapons at wide receiver and plays in a weak division. I went through their schedule and got nine wins worst case here. That's still falling back to the pack you know? Verdict: OVER

Seattle Seahawks, 7 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): I'm done pretending I know what Pete Carroll is going to do. Seattle's quarterback situation remains as mystifying as it did the day he got there. This defense is going to be very good (maybe great?) but I can't be 100-percent sold on the offense just yet. Marshawn Lynch's contract was odd and the offensive line has dealt with a lot of injuries. I could see another strong second-half push for Seattle though. Verdict: PUSH

Arizona Cardinals, 7 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): It's almost like the Seahawks and the Cards are the same team. Are they? Well, no. But they're not that far apart -- if Arizona had Seattle's offensive line I'd feel a lot better about throwing cash after Kevin Kolb, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. I just don't think they can keep their quarterback(s) upright long enough to hit the talented wideouts. The defense will be good again, but not that good. Verdict: UNDER

St. Louis Rams, 6 wins
Over (-110) / Under (-120): For me, whether or not the Rams can turn things back around quickly largely depends on how much of an impact rookies Janoris Jenkins and Brian Quick can make. If Jenkins is clean off the field, he could be great on it, and the Rams secondary suddenly looks a little dangerous. And if Quick can impact the Rams off the bat, Sam Bradford -- who said Thursday he's still sore in his ankle -- could return to form. Their early season schedule is brutal once again though, and Jeff Fisher might know he's one more year away from making a push. Verdict: UNDER

For more NFL news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnNFL on Twitter, subscribe to our RSS Feed and subscribe to our Pick-6 Podcast and NFL newsletter. You can follow Will Brinson on Twitter here: @willbrinson.

Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Aqib Talib, Brandon Carr, Brandon Marshall, Cam Newton, Carl Nicks, Drew Brees, Eric Wright, Gerald McCoy, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, John Beck, Josh Freeman, Julio Jones, Kevin Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald, Luke Kuechly, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Michael Vick, Rex Grossman, Robert Griffin, Sam Bradford, Vincent Jackson, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins, NFL

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